Nature of the Market
At RealAgentz, our goal is to foster an environment for the cultivation and dissemination of alternative listing opportunities. Huh? What? Right now it’s a buyer’s market. Ignore the all caps headlines, look at the stats, analyze the amount of inventory versus transactions and you will agree. Buyers are afraid to pull the trigger, and sellers are afraid of getting preemptively Price Chopped due to a increasingly bloated number of Days on Market. Seasonality always has an effect, but the combination of deal conscious buyers, increased inventory, and the all too real fear of overpaying leads us to a market that is not only stratified by price point, location, finish, and amenities, but also Time and timing.
The best time to buy is in the 3rd phase of the Real Estate cycle, typified by Hypersupply. While the best value is found at the bottom barrel recession prices, that is also where you will find the most competition from opportunistic investors and deal conscious end users.
As with most competition for a limited resource, the fewer people that are aware of the product, the more likely it is to arrive at a fair market rate for the exchange of consideration. While it is true that Open Houses on “Any Given Sunday” are showing less traffic then they did in the summers of 2013-2016, that doesn’t mean there isn’t competition. In reality, the competition is there waiting for a speck of blood in the water or for the asking price to drop low enough for them to swoop in and get their coveted property at their reserve price. If enough people share the same reserve price– due to similar earned income, asset profiles, or class related lifestyle expenses– then it is quite possible to have a delayed, albeit discounted, bidding war which negates or at least cuts into the monies “saved” by waiting for the price to drop.
So how do you get a deal? And how can RealAgentz help?
Well, the simple answer is Time Travel.
The Power of The Past, Present, and Future
Don’t worry this isn’t a foreign language conjugation exercise or an exploration of tenses you don’t know the equivalent of in English. I figure the set up was layered enough to get right to the punch.
If you can buy something BEFORE it hits the open market, AFTER it has been pulled due to dragging Days on Market, or in a NEAR PRESENT tense, sorry, then you have a better chance to snag an apartment that is priced competitively after languishing on the market or preemptively open to direct negotiation and quick resolution due to fear of eventual discount due to Days on Market.
We won’t call it Insider Trading, but having relevant information before your competition is privy to the tip, generally leads to a purchasing advantage. Correspondingly, knowing what is coming to market, returning to market, or being quietly marketed so as not to tempt the starting of the sales cycle stopwatch allows buyers to make more informed purchasing decisions while providing additional transparency to the true size of the market.
Ghost of Listings Past
Some sellers are stubborn, others are slow, and still others simply suffer from succumbing to the sales pitch of a slick agent who promises last summer’s pricing plus X% when current market indicators are not in alignment with this predicted profit. Needless to say, in a buyer’s market, overpriced product does not sell, and if an owner is not under duress and time is not of the essence, ultimately it gets pulled off market.
In any case, there is no real customer facing way to track down all the listings that have been pulled from market, analyze whether they have been sold, and get in contact with the owner, without a lot of leg work, which frankly a lot of people don’t have time to execute.
RealAgentz creates an agent populated marketplace for Off-Market Listings whereby Ghost Inventory gets a second chance at life, albeit not on the open market. The creation of this secondary market allows buyers to gain insight to what didn’t sell, but is still available to be purchased, with a point of contact.
Re-listing a formerly overpriced now stale and expired property on the open market often requires a stigma mitigating price cut, which can swing the pendulum in the other direction creating a cycle of mistrust and doubt as to the real quality of the property. While the property and its intrinsic value may be real, the prices are a function of collective subjectivity accepted as universal (hyperlocal) fact. As is too often the case in this media/on-demand age, perception can easily outstrip reality, and while everybody wants a deal on acquisition, they also want to make money on the exit, and overly corrective discounting can be detrimental to wealth created through home ownership, construction, yadda yadda yadda.
Coming Soon to a Theater Near You
I was not an Econ Major, and licensed Real Estate Salespersons are not required or expected to contemplate, understand, or even think about the macroeconomic ripple effect caused by mass conservatism in a corrective market entering Phase IV of the Real Estate Cycle. A broker’s job is just to get you to spend the most money possible so we can get commission for nice haircuts and suits. Right?
Well shifting markets, mindsets, and motivations require different types of brokers who are able to answer the silent cry for transparency and equanimity, while deftly shifting from macroeconomic theorizing to making metaphors about movie theaters.
So the previews… Netflix is great, but home popcorn isn’t the same, your screen isn’t big enough, and your speakers just aren’t loud enough to accommodate every movie. Some films you just gotta see in the theater. Whelp, ticket prices have gone up and some would say that Movie Quality has gone down. Either way, you still have a deep seated subconscious psychological need to see a handful of movies in the theater.
Unless of course you are a millenial and you don’t see the point of moviegoing when you could easily text, vlog, check Instagram, and play Candy Crush, while watching the movie of your choice from your off brand loveseat, cuz who needs a full sized couch anyway?
Sorry, I digress, the point is despite the inflated price of moviegoing (real estate) and the arguably declining quality of the films as a function of studio economics and the business of hyper production, every now and again, you do end up in a movie theater. Now you may only be in the theater a couple of times a year, but you do look forward to the previews when you are there, because it helps you gauge whether or not you will be returning to the theater, and quite possibly whether the parties responsible for your film of choice are truly on the decline.
Similarly, with apartments, learning what is COMING SOON to a REAL ESTATE MARKETnear you, can help you decide whether or not to leave you cozy couch and head to the theater. HUH? If you know you are in the market for a certain type of film (Apartment) and you don’t see it in the Now Playing section of the paper, Trailers are the only way to plan your consumption adequately provided you are not a price-elastic popcorn chomping VIP.
RealAgentz’ coming soon feature does just that. It gives you a heads up as to what is coming soon to a neighborhood near you, with a price point, so that you can decide how it stacks up against the current market offerings, and unlike the movies, possibly make an offer before it even hits the silver screen.
The Future is the New Now, not Flying Cars
I watched the Jetson’s growing up. Read 1984. Even Partied like it was 1999 on the eve of Y2K. The reality is the future isn’t always what it’s cracked up to be. Or in another parlance, “The Game is to be SOLD, not Told.” So we may have Alexa and Siri, but we have no Rosie the Robot. Self Driving Experiments, but no Flying Cars. We do have videophones, but the magical novelty has quickly faded into mundane normalcy.
Looking too far into the future leads to putting too much faith in Clairvoyants, Charlatans, and talking heads. Crystal Balls and Cleos. When we say Future listings, we are not talking 18-24 months out, not tapping you into the Piscean zeitgeist of properties to come. We are simply giving you enough insight into the market, say 1-12 months to properly plan your entry to the market.
Brokers who are in conversation with potential sellers may be in conversation for months before actually signing an exclusive and going live with a listing. The timing of the listing event could be predicated on the seller’s personal and professional temporal priorities. That timeline may be fixed, but listing too early could disrupt the seller’s cycle or worse yet start that dreaded Days on Market clock and the associated Discount Hand before the owner is truly ready to sell.
By creating a future market, where forward thinking shoppers can peruse potential availabilities and match their temporal priorities with spatial properties RealAgentz is able to solve Quantum Physics without disrupting the Space Time continuum and entering into a heated discussion about Dark Matter. And/or Classic Cartoons.
Okay guys, that’s my time. Welcome to the Real Agentz platform. Where we create a marketplace for expired, coming soon, and future listings allowing buyers to gain transparency to the past, present, and future of the market; sellers to avoid knee jerk price cuts due to deal-seeking Days-on-Market watching gun-shy buyers; and the spectacular paradigm shifting brokers who earn their pre-house split, pre-tax 2-3% commission one deal, existential plane, metaphorical movie, and non-flying car at a time.
Past Listings are all Off-market properties. These are properties that did not sell the first time when it was listed for sale by an agent or owner seller.
Present Listings are currently listed for sale as Active Sales
Future Listings are considered Coming Soon, Whisper Listings and Pocket Listings. These are properties that will be listed for sale within 1-12 months.
Native New Yorker and a Proud Father